I'm old enough to remember when people were making the same argument about cloud computing.
AWS took 7 years to turn a profit. Google Cloud took 15.
Big Tech can lose money for years building platforms. The companies that lose tech shifts are usually the ones playing it safe.
The AI numbers are starting to look very ugly.
Even under "best case" assumptions, FT's own data shows Microsoft AI ROI at -9%, Google at -15%, Meta at -28%, Oracle at -35%. Only Amazon barely comes out positive.
This is exactly why I keep comparing this to the dot-com era. Incredible technology does not automatically mean sustainable economics. The internet survived. Most internet companies didn't.
Right now hyperscalers are spending trillions hoping future demand catches up to present capex. That's not certainty. That's a leveraged bet.