Compared to 2025, this is happening much faster. Back when Input out my work on this in 2025, it took months of Ukrainian strikes to barely get to even spotty strikes everywhere.
To lut some perspective, 2025 was about a single drone with a 50-100 pound explosive every other day. Now we are seeing strikes with multiple drones with much larger warheads every day or sometimes double.
Before I estimated that loss of more than 25% of total capacity would be needed to start seeing systemic effects. Ukraine has reported the reduction has been more than that this week. This is ehat you would expect.
What to look for is how quickly Russia can repair refineries. Last year they could sustain the prior rate of hits. If Ukraine can consistently get one refinery daily with multiple drones, it looks like that is beyond Russia's repair capacity.
Time will tell, but we will all be watching closely.
Spot fuel outages (stations reporting they have run out of AI-92, AI-95, AI-100, and/or diesel) have spread throughout western Russia and the far east.
Can't stress enough, these are spotty outages. Only the Ryazan Oblast has widespread shortages.